Live Forecasting Instrument
World Cup Living Model v1.0.0
Every prediction locked before kickoff, hashed, and scored publicly against the betting market — including when it loses. A Differential Factor demonstration of living, falsifiable research.
Locked predictions — today
| Match | Kickoff (UTC) | P(home) | P(draw) | P(away) | Lock |
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Lock lead is disclosed per match. Standard cadence is 24h before kickoff; day-one matches were locked at deployment with shorter lead, shown honestly. The SHA-256 under each row is the tamper-evidence: it commits the full input snapshot at lock time.
Performance scorecard
Brier score: lower is better; random guessing scores 0.667. Market is the honest benchmark. Calibration shows whether stated probabilities match observed frequencies across all match outcomes.
Verify a prediction receipt
Paste a SHA-256 hash from the published prediction receipts. The tool fetches the stored input snapshot, recomputes the hash in your browser, and confirms it matches — so you know the pre-kickoff record was never modified.
Calibration scoreboard
| As of | Matches scored | Brier — model | Brier — market | Brier — knowing nothing |
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Lower is better. "Knowing nothing" is the uniform ⅓/⅓/⅓ baseline (0.667). The market column is the honest benchmark: a transparent model that explains its beliefs will usually trail an opaque market that can't. That gap is the price of interpretability — and we display it.
Title odds — current beliefs
View all trends →| # | Team | Group | Reach R32 | Quarterfinal | Semifinal | Final | Champion |
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